What Leno in Primetime Means to TV

I read a MediaPost article yesterday about NBC head honcho Jeff Zucker’s comments at an advertising conference where he suggested that NBC might trim back the number hours they broadcast in order to compete. Citing examples like FOX which only airs 15 hours of original programming and the CW which only airs 10 (or are we back up to 12 now that they’ve taken back Sundays?), Zucker said the idea was on the table at NBC to cut back although it was far from a done deal. NBC is low on cash after spending a lot on some expensive flops over the past few seasons coupled with lower viewer numbers, so cutting back makes sense. And I applaud Zucker/NBC for considering radically altering their schedule in order to compete. It seems to me that NBC has been the most forward-thinking when it comes to alternative viewing platforms.

Last night the news broke (and NBC confirmed by announcing this morning) that Jay Leno will anchor a primetime talk show beginning Fall 2009. That’s five nights a week of Leno, at 10PM. Conan O’Brian will take over the 11:30PM slot, as previously announced, and Jimmy Fallon will take over O’Brian’s later late night slot (check out Jimmy’s first vlog here).

So, to break that down, NBC is going from 3 hours of drama/comedy/reality plus 2 hours of late night talk shows (plus Carson Daly if he’s still on) to 2 hours of drama/comedy/reality and 3 hours of talk shows (plus Carson Daly). Let’s look at the pros and cons of this, from the viewer’s perspective.

Pros:

• In theory, this cuts NBC’s costs for programming in that hour by 80% or more (5 one-hour episodes of Leno’s show will cost around $2 million, total; 5 one-hour dramas/comedies cost around $2 million EACH if not more). With less red ink, this may allow NBC to give marginally profitable shows a longer chance to catch on rather than relying on instant huge ratings to remain on the schedule. For example, a show like Chuck (a Nice Girls favorite) may not be doing blockbuster ratings but is bringing in enough eyeballs to be moderately profitable, so NBC gives it another season to grow even more.
• Tied into being more patient in growing the audience of a show with middling profits is the theory that this will give NBC the opportunity to develop existing shows better. With fewer hours to focus on (I assume Leno is fairly self-run by now), the network can “grow” their existing shows.
• Using Leno as a lead-in to the local news, instead of a lead-out, may boost numbers for the affiliates which in turn boosts advertising dollars which in turn benefits NBC.
• Freer cash flow and clearer focus will allow NBC to continue to develop alternative platforms and test new revenue streams (think: Hulu.com) for the digital age.
• Fewer hours to fill means less chance of crappy reality shows, in theory. With Leno occupying 5 hours of primetime real estate, maybe we won’t have to tune out for another round of Momma’s Boys or whatever it is that NBC is substituting for Chuck in January. (Us? Bitter?)

Cons:

• Will we really watch another hour of “late night” talk shows, even if it’s in primetime? Three-and-a-half hours of one format is a LOT. (Full disclosure: I rarely watch any of the late night talk shows, and if I do, it’s more about the guest than the host.)
• Nixing original programming in the 10PM hour means the grittier, more adult fare will migrate to other networks and cable. Oh, wait…
• Focusing on current shows is good, but micromanaging is not.
• Some see this move as NBC throwing in the towel, a sign that its days are numbered.

What do you think? Is this a good move or a bad move for NBC? For television in general?